Analysis | Bowman’s primary resurfaces Democratic divisions (2024)

Three states — New York, Colorado and Utah — are holding primaries today.

In several races, more-centrist Republican candidates are up against far-right candidates — again testing the power of former president Donald Trump’s endorsem*nt and the prevailing ideology within the divided GOP. (More on that below.)

As for the Democratic primaries, they have been mostly (we said mostly) drama-free this cycle, but Rep. Jamaal Bowman’s primary in New York’s 16th District has renewed deep fissures within the party.

Bowman, a member of the far-left “Squad,” has the support of liberals, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.). His challenger, Westchester County Executive George Latimer, has gained the support of members of the old-school establishment, including Hillary Clinton. Read our colleagues Colby Itkowitz and Dylan Wells’s dispatch from Mount Vernon NY about the role race is playing in the primary.

Nearly $25 million has been spent on TV ads in the race — a record-breaking amount for a House primary, according to AdImpact, an ad-tracking firm.

Most of that money — $17 million — is being spent by the United Democracy Project, the super PAC of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), to defeat Bowman, who has been an outspoken critic of Israel and the Biden administration for its support of Israel in the war in Gaza. (None of the ads, however, has mentioned Israel or Gaza, which is a telling sign of how little the issue motivates voters.)

AIPAC’s focus on beating Bowman and others critical of Israel, including Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.), has infuriated liberals who are frustrated that Democratic leadership — ardent supporters of Israel — haven’t done more to protect incumbents from outside attacks.

Justice Democrats, a group that has worked to elect progressives to Congress, including by challenging incumbents, pointed to the past two cycles when the establishment went all-in to protect incumbents from challenges from the left.

In an attempt to protect incumbents in the 2020 cycle, then-Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.), who has since retired from Congress, blacklisted any firms that tried to oust sitting House Democrats.

And in 2021, Democratic Reps. Hakeem Jeffries of New York, Josh Gottheimer of New Jersey and Terri A. Sewell of Alabama created Team Blue PAC to defend incumbents from progressive challengers in the 2022 election. “This effort to protect our incredible members is an extension of my job as caucus chair,” Jeffries said at the time.

This year, Team Blue PAC has donated to four Democratic incumbents. Bowman was not one of them. Neither was Bush or Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), both of whom face serious challengers in their August primaries. Speaking anonymously in order to discuss the inner workings of the organization, a person familiar with Team Blue PAC’s operation said none of those members asked for help.

And Gottheimer, a Team Blue PAC board member, endorsed Bowman’s opponent Latimer yesterday. “I know George will fight hate in all forms and stand up for the values we believe in,” Gottheimer posted on X.

Jeffries is backing Bowman. Jeffries stepped off the board of Team Blue PAC when he became House Democratic leader last year. He has endorsed Bowman, which Bowman has been highlighting on the campaign trail, and has contributed to Bowman’s campaign through his leadership PAC.

But progressive activists say that Democratic leadership could be doing more, especially since Bowman’s Bronx and Westchester district is in the backyard of Jeffries’s Brooklyn district.

A Jeffries spokeswoman, Christie Stephenson, pointed to a House race that Democrats won in February in response.

“The outcome of the special election in NY-03 where Tom Suozzi defeated a MAGA Republican to flip a red seat and turn it blue is an actual reflection of Hakeem Jeffries,” Stephenson said in a statement. “He is focused on taking back the House, and that is how he will be judged.”

Bowman, however, has earned the ire of many of his colleagues of late.

Bowman pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor in October for pulling a fire alarm at the U.S. Capitol complex. Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.), a former member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, has been highly critical of Bowman, calling him antisemitic. A profanity-laden campaign speech Bowman gave over the weekend has caused House Democrats, who have grown uncomfortable with his tactics recently, to squirm.

Most political professionals closely watching the race expect Bowman will lose today. We’ll see.

Here are three Republican primaries we’re watching tonight:

Rep. John Curtis (R) is facing off against Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs in the primary for the seat held by Republican Sen. Mitt Romney, who isn’t running for reelection.

Staggs has Trump’s endorsem*nt and won the most votes in Republicans’ nominating convention in April. But Curtis has raised more money than Staggs and has the backing of two super PACs, Conservative Values for Utah and Defend American Jobs, which together have spent more than $8.8 million backing him.

Conservative Values for Utah is largely funded by the Republican megadonors Jay Faison and Rob Walton. Defend American Jobs is funded by the crypto industry.

Curtis is closer to the Romney mold than Staggs.

He founded the Conservative Climate Caucus and has not endorsed Trump, although he has said he will support the Republican nominee. He’s a member of the Republican Governance Group and the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus in the House.

Brad Wilson, a former Utah House speaker, and the businessman Jason Walton are also running for the nomination.

After nearly losing her seat in 2022, Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert is running for reelection in a redder neighboring district that Rep. Ken Buck (R) represented before he resigned in March.

Boebert is facing six other Republicans in the primary, including state Rep. Richard Holtorf and Mike Lynch, a former state House minority elder. We’re watching whether they divide up the vote and allow Boebert to win with a plurality.

The primary for retiring Republican Rep. Doug Lamborn’s seat pits a candidate backed by House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) against one endorsed by Trump.

Reps. Matt Gaetz (Fla.) and Bob Good (Va.) — two of the eight Republicans who voted last year to oust Kevin McCarthy as House speaker — are supporting Dave Williams, the chairman of the Colorado Republican Party. Johnson and Lamborn have endorsed Jeff Crank, a former talk radio host who once worked for the conservative group Americans for Prosperity.

Two super PAC that have backed more mainstream Republicans in other primaries this year, Conservatives for American Excellence and America Leads Action, have spent $1.9 million supporting Crank. America Leads Action’s ads have highlighted Williams’s business dealings with China, branding him “China Dave Williams.”

Chris McIntire, a Williams campaign spokesman, accused the super PACs of trying to “smear Dave Williams” by running ads attacking him rather than positive ones backing Crank.

Correction: A previous version said Torres is a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, but he left the group earlier this year.

The president has no public events on his schedule as he remains at Camp David to continue his debate prep for Thursday’s debate against Trump.

The House returns today. The House Rules Committee will meet to take up hundreds of amendments to three appropriations bills: Homeland Security; Department of State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs; and the Department of Defense bills.

The House Energy and Commerce Committee will hold a hearing “Examining Anti-Doping Measures in Advance of the 2024 Olympics” tonight. U.S. Swimming Olympians Michael Phelps and Allison Schmitt will testify. They both just attended the U.S. Olympic Swimming Trials in Indianapolis last week to cheer on their friends and former teammates.

U.S. District Judge Aileen M. Cannon’s hearings on pretrial motions in Trump’s classified documents case continue this morning at 11 a.m. Yesterday, Cannon heard arguments for and against preventing Trump from discussing law enforcement agents involved in the case. The prosecution argued that Trump’s misleading claim that the FBI agents who searched Mar-a-Lago were authorized to kill him made such an order necessary. Cannon didn’t seem convinced, our colleagues Devlin Barrett and Perry Stein report, but has not issued a ruling on the matter yet.

The first hearing today will be confidential, covering topics that have not been unsealed for public consumption, with a 1 p.m. hearing about Trump’s evidentiary challenges.

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin will make his first public appearance with Trump Friday as Trump makes a push for voters in a state he has lost twice.

“The fact that we’re even talking about it as competitive — two words: Glenn Youngkin,” said Republican strategist Zack Roday.

Roday, who has worked for Youngkin in the past, said that before Youngkin Republicans in Virginia “had no bench, we had no wins, we had no hope.”

Democrats are less convinced that Trump has a shot in Virginia.

Democrats also point to the inequality in the campaigns’ presence in the state: Biden has opened six campaign offices in Virginia. Trump, meanwhile, has yet to establish an extensive ground game there.

U.S. Surgeon General Vivek H. Murthy declared gun violence a public health crisis today, saying: “I know it’s been polarizing and I know it’s been politicized, but if we can see it as a public health issue, we can come together and implement a public health solution.”

Murthy cited mass shootings in the past decade and their effect on mental health as a reason for the decision.

“We’re clearly the outlier and not in a good way,” Murthy said. “There are parents who are worried about dropping their kids off at school because of school shootings.”

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